تغير الأمطار وأثرها في أنتاج محصول القمح في محافظة القادسية للمدة (1980-2023)

Abstract

The research aimed to identify the trends of change that occurred in rainfall rates in Al-Qadisiyah Governorate during four decades (1980-2023), and its impact on wheat crop production in the governorate. Among the most important statistical indicators that were used in addition to the arithmetic averages are the standard deviation, the amount of change, the coefficient of variation, and the correlation coefficient ( Pearson), and it turned out that the amount of annual rainfall in general has achieved fluctuating growth rates between negative and positive, as the general trends of the time series for the four periods of rainfall in Al-Qadisiyah Governorate indicate fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall falling annually. In the first and second cycles, there was an upward trend, as the While the rate of increase in the second cycle was (0.63 mm), the second period witnessed the highest amount of rainfall during the years 1993 and 2001, amounting to (223.4,192.2 mm), respectively. The second period achieved the highest arithmetic average of (130.31) mm, while the two cycles witnessed The third and fourth periods showed a decreasing trend, as the largest rate of inverse change was (-7.16) for the third period, while the fourth period witnessed a decrease in rainfall by (-5.85). The fourth period also recorded the lowest arithmetic average of (84.58) mm. As for wheat production quantities during the study period, they witnessed fluctuations between rise and fall. The highest production quantity was achieved during the second period (1991-2001) by (312,181) tons, while the third period (2002-2012) witnessed the lowest production quantity by (107,035) tons.cycle witnessed The first is an increase rate of (1.92) mmThe results of the statistical relationships showed that all correlations were positive and statistically significant, as it was found that the amount of rainfall during the second period had the most influence on the amount of wheat production, as the calculated (F) value was (24.844) and statistically significant with a significance level of (1%) and the value of the coefficient of determination ( 0.570), meaning that the amount of rainfall in the second period explains (57%) of the variation occurring in achieving the amount of wheat production, and the value of the regression coefficient is (0.789). This indicates that a change of (1) in the value of the amount of rainfall in the second period It leads to a change of (0.789) in the amount of wheat production, and the total rainfall periods recorded the calculated (F) value of (30.453) and is statistically significant at a significance level of (1%and The value of the coefficient of determination is (0.623), meaning that the amount of rainfall for the four periods combined explains an amount of (62.3%) of the variation occurring in achieving the amount of wheat production, and the value of the regression coefficient is (0.825). This indicates that a change of (1) in the value of the amount of rainfall The four periods combined lead to a change of (0.825) in the quantity of wheat production. Accordingly, the amounts of rainfall during the four periods combined and individually had a positive impact on the quantity of wheat production with a high level of moral significance.